For many months now consumers have been hearing that this is a buyer’s market. From television ads produced by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) to blogs coming from all corners of the internet the chorus of voices is growing. If this is indeed a buyer’s market, why are so many people still sitting on the fence? I know that many people will claim that they cannot get financed and in some cases that may be true. The guidelines have become more stringent, the stated income, stated asset loans that helped to usher in the current housing climate are no more. If you are wanting an investment property you are going to have to make an investment of some of your capital to get it! In the following article by Fred Chamberlin he takes a look at fence sitters when it comes to refinancing. Similar to those who are waiting to purchase, there are those who continue to hold out on actual monetary savings they could realize through a refinance. With the record low interest rates he provides concrete evidence to spur people to refinance and save money on their mortgage.
Via Fred Chamberlin of FHA Loans Oregon:
The Federal Reserve has been purchasing Mortgage Backed Securities for some time now and mortgage rates still aren’t at 4.5%. So ,what gives? Well the answer is really not that hard, nor is it that simple. First of all you need to understand what Mortgage Backed Securities are and how coupon rates compare to the actual interest rate. Below is the chart of MBS purchases from the New York Fed, Feb. 12-18. You can look at their site here.
Take a look at the Coupon and the amount of purchases (in the millions) from FHLMC (Freddie Mac), FNMA (Fannie Mae) and GNMA (Ginnie Mae). As you can see, most of the MBS are 30 year and there is very little 15 year being purchased.
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Transactions ($ million)
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Coupon
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FHLMC
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FNMA
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GNMA
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4
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500
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200
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4.5
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6,150
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8,000
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800
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5
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800
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1,016
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200
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5.5
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830
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6
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221
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300
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15 Year1
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Other2
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Total
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1 Inclusive of 10 year product.
2 20 year, 40 year and other agency programs.
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Now, if you notice, the majority of these purchases are in the 4.5 and 5% coupons, although other coupons are also being bought. So, what does a 4.5% Coupon really mean? Is that the rate being offered to the consumer? Short answer – No!
The difference between the “coupon rate” and the interest rate offered to the borrower is what the originating firm, the wholesaler, the agencies like Fannie and Freddie, and the Wall Street securitizing firm get to put the product together. At 4.5%, the interest rate the customer pays will probably be 5.5 or 5.75%. So, what does that mean about what the Fed is doing? Well, they are being pretty smart, they are buying the higher coupons that will probably be paid back in fairly short order as rates drop. Like the 5, 5.5 and 6% coupons are being paid right now with rates hovering around 5%.
So, will rates drop to 4.5%? Will they drop to 4%? I can’t tell you. What I can say is that if it makes sense to refinance or purchase at 5%, it might be a good idea to do that now. Trite it might be, but “A Bird in the Hand, is Worth Two in the Bush!” When you are at 6.5%, a 5% interest rate is better than not having a 4.5% interest rate. Give me a call today to discuss your specific issues. Every person and every loan is different. 541-342-7576.
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